Technical Appendix: The key to unlocking $223M from Northern Kentucky manufacturing? Increased public engagement.
This appendix is used as a means to include all necessary calculations for the main article.
Note that the data below is sourced either from publicly available websites, publicly accessible job sites, or from the US Census.
Appendix A: Current Investments
Boone, Campbell, and Kenton counties scored the following major investments in 2024:
Niagara Bottling - $129.8M investment, 60 full-time jobs.
Bakery Express Midwest - $20M investment, 175 full-time jobs.
L2 Aviation - $12.2M investment, 250 full-time jobs.
Camco Chemical Co. - $3M investment, 30 full-time jobs.
In total, this results in $165M in net investment, creating a total of 515 new jobs.
Appendix B: Uncaptured Value
As of January 5th, 2025, per public-facing job sites, there are currently 1,026 job openings for manufacturing-specific roles in Northern Kentucky. If these current job postings were filled today, the region would be able to generate an additional $223M in economic value per year.
We derive the above number with the following calculations: If we take the posted salary from these job postings, we can calculate the total estimated cost of an employee to be 1.4 times the salary. Once we have this number, we can estimate the total productivity output to be 2.74 times its input costs. Aggregating the sum of all salaries yields the ultimate finding, $223M.
We can visualize the value created by sector in the chart below:
Value Creation by Sector, County
The immediate takeaways include:
Boone County stands the most to gain from these efforts with over $165.8M in untapped value, with Kenton County coming in second at $47.5M and Campbell County in third at $10.1M.
However, it is not zero sum game - creating a robust pipeline to generate manufacturing talent will prepare both Kenton and Campbell for future regional investments.
Appendix C: Demographics
Key Question: Is there sufficient untapped labor to facilitate this job creation?
To answer this question, we should break down the data for the following:
What is the unemployment rate by county?
What are the unemployed labor totals by county compared to the job totals in these counties?
Median Unemployment Rate by County
We see a median unemployment rate of 3.8% across Boone, Kenton, and Campbell, with a minimum unemployment rate of 0.9% in Union and a maximum unemployment rate of 7.6% in Fort Thomas. Northern Kentucky is thus well below the national average unemployment rate of 4.2%, but several cities have significantly higher unemployment rates than the national average.
Total Job Count versus Total Unemployed Persons by County
Despite having relatively low unemployment rates, Kenton, Campbell, and Boone counties have over 16.6k individuals who are actively willing to work. Even if all open manufacturing roles were filled, this would represent only about 6.1% of the total pool of unemployed persons.
Therefore, the supply of manufacturing labor is not people-constrained; but is instead constrained by other external factors, such as skill development.
Appendix D: Wage Economics
Key Question: Will the expected increase in wages offset the high upfront investment in structural infrastructure such as skills development?
To answer this question, we should break down the data for the following:
What is the expected salary for a manufacturing role versus the expected salary for a typical resident?
How does this expected salary increase as experience is gained?
Expected Salary for Manufacturing Role versus Typical Resident
What we see is that for each of the counties, the median manufacturing income for middle skilled roles is higher, if not significantly higher, than the expected median income for a single resident. The median for single-income earners is about $48k, whereas the median for entry-level manufacturing roles is $54k.
This second chart demonstrates how, as individuals transition from entry-level roles to middle-skill roles, this earning gap only widens, as the median rises to a little over $68k.
Appendix E: Required Skills
Key Question: What skills are missing to unlock underutilized labor to shift to middle-skill roles?
To answer this question, we should break down the data for the following:
What skills are manufacturers seeking from their new hires?
What programs exist today to bridge the skills gap for job-seekers?
Required Skills
We have classified each of the public job descriptions into a set of distinct required skills; and this chart represents the top skills requested by employers across all sectors.
Immediately, a few key takeaways jump out:
Four of the top ten skills, including communication, time management, problem solving, and leadership are soft skills. This implies individuals with unrelated professional experience can still be incredibly valuable to a manufacturing role, especially in positions of leadership, if they are also willing and able to learn the technical skills.
The other six skills, including lean manufacturing, tool maintenance, continuous improvement, ERP systems, equipment setup, and troubleshooting are all technical, or “hard skills.” The prevalence of these skills points clearly to where upskilling should focus its efforts.
Discussion of Methodology
If you have any thoughts regarding our methodology, including:
Data sources
Statistical methods
Conclusions reached
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